What I Learnt Today

Nudge – Thaler and Sunstein

You can still help people achieve better outcomes – while absolutely respecting freedom of choice.

When a decision is to be made, most people take the path of least resistance – which is often ‘no decision’.

Good ‘choice architecture’ makes it easier for people to end up with the best solution for them.

How good are we at giving a ‘nudge’? Professors Thaler and Sunstein outline their philosophy of “libertarian paternalism’ with many practical examples.

The authors have also established a companion blog at http://nudges.org

Booko Link

Kindle Link 

 

 

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Super 15 Rugby kicks off tomorrow (Friday). SANZAR has adopted a new format with more local derbies.

The first game for the NSW Waratahs is against the new Melbourne Rebels team – kick off 7:40pm Friday Feb 18th (in Melbourne). Go the Waratahs,

There is still time to enter in a footy tipping comp, as our extended family does each year. There is now a footytips iPhone app to make entering your tips easier. 

In this Rugby World Cup year, the All Blacks have been in secret high-performance training camps over summer.

This video obtained by WikiLeaks gives us an indication of what they have been doing.

The Australian teams have clearly adopted the same tactic that has paid dividends in previous world cup preparations – lull the kiwis into a false true sense of complacency.

Sad, very sad.

 

 

 

 

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Arthur C Clarke (1917-2008) is the doyen of science fiction writing. He published hundreds of short stories and many award winning novels. He is perhaps most famous for the the movie 2001: A Space Odyssey, which he co-wrote with the director,Stanley Kubrick.

He started out as a radar technician in the army, and is credited with being the first to outline the idea that bouncing signals of geostationary satellites would be an ideal way to relay telecommunications.

Among his many short stories, this 31 word piece ‘siseneG is his shortest.

As he says in his letter to the publisher, ‘I think you’ll agree that they don’t come much shorter’.

via (the very excellent site) Letters of Note

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Why so wet?

Counterpoint aired an interview with hydro-climatologist Prof Stewart Franks this week and asked him to explain why it has been so wet.

It appears it is all to do with ENSO*, and once again proves the interconnectedness of all things.

In some years, around Xmas time, the fisherman in Peru have a bumper catch of anchovies.’Ole!’ they say as they feast, ‘Praise to El Nino – the Christ Child (literally ‘the boy’). Pass the patatas bravas, will you?’

Normally, the current along the South American coast Is from South to North, bringing cold water to the equatorial regions. This is known as La Nina – the girl. As a consequence, the ocean temperature is normally 8 degrees colder in the Eastern Pacific (South America) than it is in the Central (Tahiti) or Western Pacific (Austalia).

Sometimes, this cold current slows or ceases, and the water around Peru warms so that it is similar to the temperature in Tahiti. Hooray, more anchovies. This phenomenon (loss of the normal cold current) is the celebrated ‘El Nino’.

Whether El Nino will occur depends on lots of things that we can’t calculate, but by May each year the die is cast, and we can predict whether El Nino or La Nina will arrive at Christmas time.

Meanwhile……The climate in South East Queensland and Northern NSW (known as the ‘Greater Alstonville Area’) is characterized by summer rain.

During La Nina, the water near Tahiti is much warmer than Peru, the air pressure in Tahiti is high, and the breezes blow across the sea towards Australia, picking up moisture as they cross the ocean. Greater Alstonville is at risk of flooding rains – but generally the increased rainfall makes farmers and frogs much happier. (our Peruvian friends will have to choose a different tapas – maybe that ripoff stuffed olive one)

During El Nino, the water near Tahiti is as warm as Peru, and the air pressure in Tahiti is lower than usual, and the winds tend to flow easterly, towards Tahiti. The Greater Alstonville area does not receive the usual moisture bearing ocean winds, and the generous rain they bring. If El Nino dominates for a few years, we have a dry and sunburnt land.

* ENSO stands for El Nino Southern Osciallation. The Southern Oscillation Index is the difference in atmospheric pressure between Darwin and Tahiti. The effect was described by Sir Gilbert Walker, Director-General of British observatories in India early last century – so it has been known about for quite a while. It is low during El Nino and high during La Nina.

So, should we buy shares in Drizabone?

The Bureau of Meterology reports that La Ninas affect on the weather this year is weakening, as it usually does after summer.

In Autumn we’ll know more about what to expect next summer.

The BOM site has a much more detailed description of El Nino, La NIna and the SOI.

 

 

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In 1988, at age 22, Lieutenant Will Carling became the youngest ever captain of the English Rugby team. In all he played 72 test, 59 as captain, and lead the side to four Five Nation championships.

He was the unsuccessful captain in the 1991 world cup final at Twickenham.

You won’t find Will Carling in this photo.

As a rugby player, he has had quite the celebrity status. At one time the press linked him romantically with Lady Di. Today, 14 years after his retirement, he has 45,000 followers on Twitter. (warne888 has 325,000 followers. Between warne888, willcarling and tlembke we have 370,003 altogether.)

Last Tuesday, these twitter followers were entertained to a blow by blow account of Will’s pursuit of a person who had absconded with an iPad he left behind on a train.

Using the ‘Find My iPhone‘ service in MobileMe, he was able to track the culprit to their apartment block. ‘Find My iPhone‘ is available free online and also as an iPhone or iPad app. It tracks the location of an iPhone and displays it on a google map. (Unfortunately, it can only pinpoint location within a few metres. It is not accurate enough to tell you that the phone is in the back pocket of the pants you wore last week and are now in the bottom of the dirty clothes basket)

WIth ‘Find My iPhone‘ you can send messages to your missing iPhone/iPad, tell it to make noises so you can find it in your home, remote lock it, or remote wipe it (if it is stolen).

The UK’s Daily Telegraph completes the story using Will’s tweets- 

The drama begin after Mr Carling left the portable device on a train on Tuesday.

Using ..’Find My iPhone’.., he narrowed the location of the thief. He then door-knocked 18 doors and left letters appealing for the thief to give back his iPad, but had no success.

“On an adventure! Left my iPad on train yesterday, Doh! Have now tracked it down to a building in Woking. On my way! Could be interesting!,” he tweeted.

“Used the Mobile me tracker. It is in a block of flats! Managed to get in & knock on all 18 doors! No answer surprisingly. So left notes :-O.”

But then the situation took a dramatic turn after he saw that the thief had fled to the local train station, in a situation he described as “like Enemy of the State”, in reference to the Hollywood movie staring Will Smith.

Mr Carling then called police, where he became involved in a “priceless” conversation with the operator, who was clearly a fan.

“The olice (sic) have been notified. So all go in the iPad rescue. Cracking line from the Police lady who was talking to me about old rugby players … priceless :),” he wrote.

He then continued: “Can’t believe this. Mobile me is now showing my iPad near the station round the back of some shops- has it been dumped???”

“Just sent the moving iPad a message telling them they are being tracked! quoted Police crime reference. Shall update soon…..

“The iPad was locked, so they will not know whose it is (unless they have hacked in!) so watching it moving as I type…..”

Mr Carling, who now manages his own management company, later added: “breaking news. iPad is ‘heading’ towards the local Police Station. Feel like a real spy…….

“Just sent the ‘moving’ iPad a message ‘you are very close to the Police Station now….’ would freak you out if you had hold of it….:-).”

To his relief, he then told his followers that he had success. Police had phoned him saying his iPad had been handed in.

It remains unclear if the person who took the iPad was the thief or a good Samaritan who handed it in.

“Result! Police have just called, iPad has been handed over! It was handed into Woking Station. 

Tracked it all on Mobile me – weird / awesome …,” he said.

After turning up at Woking Police station, he was denied a picture with officers but he later posted a photograph of his stolen iPad. He thanked police for their help.

“Rescued iPad! Might check the finger prints on it! Ha ha,” he told his followers.

Mr Carling could not be reached for comment last night. A spokesman for Surrey Police was unavailable for comment. No arrests have been made.

 

(NB This story could also have been titled ‘iPad left on train – later handed in to police’, but it would have been less dramatic)

 

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